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Kalshi

Mentioned 5 times across 3 podcasts this week

This Week's Pulse

Kalshi secured a $22 billion valuation in a new funding round led by Technology Crossover Ventures this May, even as the platform faced a 6.6% dip in weekly volume to $3.86 billion and increased regulatory scrutiny.

While Scott Galloway on Pivot treats the platform as a serious data source, noting, "Kalshi says there's a 72% likelihood there's no rate cuts for the rest of the year," others are far more skeptical. On Hard Fork, Casey Newton highlighted that "at Kalshi, there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one," warning listeners that "the odds are against you." Kevin Roose offered a more personal take, quipping, "Oh, thank God. My bet is gonna pay out on Kalshi."

The regulatory heat is mounting. Richard Blumenthal argued on The Indicator that the company's aggressive marketing efforts "potentially run afoul of existing consumer protection laws." Meanwhile, Casey Newton noted that the platform has already been blocked in Brazil as part of a global crackdown on prediction markets.

To stabilize its position, Kalshi is pivoting toward legitimacy, recently partnering with the National Council on Problem Gambling to implement new trading safeguards. Whether these measures can satisfy regulators while maintaining the massive volume seen during the PGA Championship remains the central tension for the firm's future.

Where it's discussed

Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Hard Fork

Casey Newtonneutralfrom “The Regulation of Prediction Markets”

A prediction market platform that has been blocked in Brazil and is subject to self-regulation discussions.

“They seem very good at that sort of thing. So there's a little bit more action here in the United States. Two US senators, including Kirsten Gillibrand and Dave McCormick, have now introduced a bill that would ban members of the legislative and executive branc…”

Casey Newtonneutralfrom “The Risks and Regulation of Prediction Markets”

A prediction market platform noted for having a high ratio of unprofitable users and falling under CFTC jurisdiction.

“Right? Um, according to The Wall Street Journal, which did some great reporting on this over the weekend, on Polymarket, more than 70% of users lose money on the platform, and at Kalshi, there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one based on data fr…”

Kevin Rooseneutralfrom “The Rise and Risks of Prediction Markets”

A prediction market platform where Kevin Roose has placed bets.

“Oh, thank God. My bet is gonna pay out on Kalshi.”

Prediction markets are threatening national security. Who's gonna fix it?

The Indicator from Planet Money

Richard Blumenthalnegativefrom “Regulating Prediction Markets”

A prediction market platform featured in advertisements that the senator finds potentially deceptive.

“In my view, those ads potentially run afoul of existing consumer protection laws, federal laws that prohibit deceptive and misleading marketing, as well as state laws that mirror those federal laws.”

Trump’s China Summit, Inflation Shock, and Silicon Valley’s Midterm Money

Pivot

Scott Gallowayneutralfrom “Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook”

Cited as a source for the 72% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year.

“So there's g- there's not going to be a rate cut. And, and as a matter of fact, Kalshi says there's a 72% likelihood there's no rate cuts for the rest of the year because you still, there-- These Fed go- governors don't wanna be known as the people that, that …”